DIS
Walt Disney Co
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 108.00
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 96.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 112.00
Thesis breakThe thesis is invalidated if Disney reports a material cybersecurity incident ma...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 32% | 100 / 100 | 32.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 19% | 10 / 100 | 1.9 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- 10-year contract with Feld Entertainment
- Strategic licensing agreement with OpenAI for Disney characters in Sora
- Q3 FY26 EPS beat with parks segment revenue up 10% YoY to $9.97B