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WBA

Walgreen Boots Alliance Ord Shs

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-09 Data 34 days old MXN 222.00 Healthcare - Medical - PharmaceuticalsREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
49

Position levels

Currenttoday
MXN 222.00
Buy <=wait / entry
MXN 168.33
Trim >=take some off
MXN 205.00
Thesis breakThe Sycamore Partners take-private is reversed or unwound, residual BMV sharehol...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case16%100 / 10016.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case36%10 / 1003.6
Weighted conviction49 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Sycamore Partners take-private transaction for Walgreens Boots Alliance
  • Q3 2024 adjusted EPS down 36.6% with $12.4B impairment driving $5.6B loss and 2024 guidance cut
  • Pharmacy margin compression from PBM consolidation (CVS/Caremark, Express Scripts, Optum Rx) reducing bargaining power
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.