VMC
Vulcan Materials Co
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 285.34
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 256.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 300.00
Thesis breakAn adverse NAFTA arbitration award materialising as a material charge, or full-y...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 26% | 100 / 100 | 26.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: acquisitions of Brannan Sand & Gravel and operations in Colorado and Texas plus divestiture of non-core assets in California and U.S. Virgin Islands
- Earnings or guidance changes: Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $654 million with reaffirmed full-year guidance of $2.4 - 2.6 billion
- Government infrastructure momentum: $1.2 trillion IIJA spending supporting aggregates demand via federal and state agencies