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VST

Vistra Corp

BUY 2026-08-11 Data 12 days old USD 144.74 AWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
72

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 144.74
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 131.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 165.00
Thesis breakDownward revision to full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, cancellation or ma...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case10%10 / 1001.0
Weighted conviction72 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • 20-year PPAs with Meta for more than 2,600 MW zero-carbon nuclear energy including uprates
  • $1 billion founding commitment to Helix Digital Infrastructure partnership with KKR and NVIDIA
  • Completed Lotus acquisition adding 2,600 MW natural gas generation
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.