NYSE:SPCE
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 2.55
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 1.73
Trim >=take some off
USD 2.80
Thesis breakA future SEC filing containing going-concern language, a dilutive equity raise p...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 8% | 100 / 100 | 8.0 |
| Base case | 48% | 62 / 100 | 29.8 |
| Bear case | 44% | 10 / 100 | 4.4 |
| Weighted conviction | 42 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY | ||
Top risks
- No commercial flights completed and Delta class programme has no established track record with delays as a structural feature
- Q1 2026 EPS of -$0.81 beat estimate of -$0.91 but company continues posting large losses with 2025 revenue of only $2M
- Consensus analyst rating of Hold from 4 analysts with 50% Sell recommendations and average price target of $3.08