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VLO

Valero Energy Corp

BUY 2026-08-29 Data 14 days old USD 352.36 Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
69

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 352.36
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 266.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 340.00
Thesis breakA sustained crack spread compression driving forward earnings materially below c...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case37%100 / 10037.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case13%10 / 1001.3
Weighted conviction69 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 2026 earnings beat with actual EPS $12.54 vs $9.77 est (+28.35% surprise) and revenue $44.48B vs $39.47B est
  • Record quarterly net income $3.7B with higher operating income across refining, renewable diesel, and ethanol segments
  • Management guidance for constructive near-term environment citing stronger refining margins, low inventories, and resilient demand
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.