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VLO

Valero Energy Corp

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 312.90 Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingREDUCE ZONE
62

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 312.90
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 241.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 295.00
Thesis breakTwo consecutive quarters of refining margin compression to mid-cycle levels comb...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case29%100 / 10029.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case21%10 / 1002.1
Weighted conviction62 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 2026 EPS beat of 28.35% ($12.54 actual vs $9.77 est) with $3.7B net income
  • Stockholder cash returns of $2.6B and $1.20 quarterly dividend declared
  • Strong refining operations and commercial execution across segments
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.