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VLO

Valero Energy Corp

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 374.95 Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 374.95
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 293.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 380.00
Thesis breakA confirmed multi-quarter run of refining margins at or below the five-year mid-...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case25%100 / 10025.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 FY26 EPS beat of +12.54 vs +10.13 estimate with revenue of 44.48B
  • UBS raised price target to $450 from $355 while maintaining Buy rating
  • Upcoming Q3 2026 earnings release and conference call on October 22, 2026
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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