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UNP

Union Pacific Corp

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 304.20 Industrials - RailroadsREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
64

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 304.20
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 245.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 295.00
Thesis breakA block, material remedies, or indefinite delay of the Norfolk Southern merger b...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case32%100 / 10032.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Norfolk Southern merger momentum with STB response submissions and binding MOU
  • Mid-single-digit EPS growth guidance for 2026 with record full-year profitability
  • Q4 other income increase of $264 million and Q2 EPS beat of $3.41 vs $3.16
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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