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UNP

Union Pacific Corp

BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 292.13 Industrials - RailroadsAWAIT ENTRY
72

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 292.13
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 260.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 310.00
Thesis breakA formal STB rejection of the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger, or a sustai...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case10%10 / 1001.0
Weighted conviction72 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 2026 EPS beat of $3.41 vs $3.16 estimate (+7.91%)
  • 3% dividend increase to $1.42 per share
  • Enhanced merger application with Norfolk Southern including new customer protections
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.