UBER
Uber Technologies Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 69.12
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 62.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 82.00
Thesis breakBinding gig worker reclassification in a top-three market that lifts consolidate...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 40% | 100 / 100 | 40.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 10% | 10 / 100 | 1.0 |
| Weighted conviction | 72 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: voluntary takeover offer for Delivery Hero at EUR 41.50 per share, $14.8B equity value, expected to be accretive to Non-GAAP EPS with high-single-digit accretion by year three
- Earnings and guidance: Q2 FY26 Gross Bookings +22% YoY, Non-GAAP EPS +35% YoY to $0.81, GAAP diluted EPS $1.17, TTM FCF exceeded $10B
- Strategic partnership: operational partnership with Hinomaru Kotsu for robotaxi pilot deployment in Tokyo