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TSLA

Tesla Inc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 311.21 Consumer Cyclical - Auto - ManufacturersREDUCE ZONE
40

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 311.21
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 225.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 285.00
Thesis breakThe thesis would break on a confirmed second consecutive quarterly earnings miss...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case6%100 / 1006.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case46%10 / 1004.6
Weighted conviction40 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 2026 EPS miss of $0.33 vs $0.44 estimate (25% miss)
  • Analyst average price target of $415.1 from 28 analysts with 59.62% BUY ratings
  • Declining global EV market share from ~70% in 2020 to below 50% due to BYD and Chinese competitors
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.