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TSLA

Tesla Inc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 328.58 Consumer Cyclical - Auto - ManufacturersREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
37

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 328.58
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 223.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 310.00
Thesis breakA confirmed multi-quarter delivery decline of more than 10% year-on-year combine...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case2%100 / 1002.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case50%10 / 1005.0
Weighted conviction37 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Competitive share loss to BYD and Chinese EV makers, with global EV market share declining from ~70% in 2020 to below 50%
  • Elevated capital expenditure guidance exceeding $20 billion for 2026 primarily allocated to AI and robotics initiatives
  • Annual revenue decline of 3% due to lower vehicle deliveries
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.