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TSAT

Telesat Corp

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-28 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 45.39 Technology - Communication EquipmentAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
55

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 45.39
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 36.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 52.00
Thesis breakLoss, cancellation or material delay of the USD 2.3 billion defence contract, 20...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case21%100 / 10021.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case29%10 / 1002.9
Weighted conviction55 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Secured $2.3 billion Arctic military satcom contract expanding Lightspeed network capacity by 44%
  • 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of $213 million exceeded guidance via GEO cost optimization
  • 2026 GEO revenue guidance of $300-320 million reflecting $90-110 million YoY decline
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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