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TSAT

Telesat Corp

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-09 Data 34 days old USD 58.92 Technology - Communication EquipmentREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
39

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 58.92
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 30.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 46.00
Thesis breakA formal Lightspeed launch delay beyond the current disclosed schedule, a furthe...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case4%100 / 1004.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case47%10 / 1004.7
Weighted conviction39 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Repeated large EPS misses including Q1 2026 actual -$2.22 vs est -$0.44 (403.64% miss) and Q4 2025 -$6.08 vs est -$1.05
  • Net margin of -47.73% with ongoing quarterly losses and revenue in $63-76M range
  • Material risk of lower GEO revenue and EBITDA from SEC filing disclosures that could delay profitability if LEO ramp encounters delays
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.