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TSM

Taiwan Semicndctr Mnufctrng Co Ltd

BUY 2026-08-11 Data 12 days old USD 421.38 AWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
73

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 421.38
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 368.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 485.00
Thesis breakThe thesis would be invalidated by a confirmed 2026 full-year revenue growth pri...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case52%62 / 10032.2
Bear case8%10 / 1000.8
Weighted conviction73 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • 10-year Amkor partnership for advanced packaging capacity in Arizona
  • Raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to slightly above 40% YoY in USD
  • Q2 2026 revenue +36% YoY with advanced nodes (7nm and below) at 77% of wafer revenue and HPC at 66%
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.