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TSM

Taiwan Semicndctr Mnufctrng Co Ltd

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-10-04 Data 8 days old USD 472.78 Technology - SemiconductorsAWAIT ENTRY
BLOCKED - NOT ACTIONABLEMethodology gate: buy_preconditions_failed
64

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 472.78
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 393.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 520.00
Thesis breakA named supply agreement (Amkor or Sony) is cancelled or materially repriced, fu...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case54%62 / 10033.5
Bear case13%10 / 1001.3
Weighted conviction64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • TSMC-Amkor long-term partnership to accelerate advanced packaging in the United States
  • Sony Semiconductor Solutions preliminary agreement for next-generation image sensor strategic partnership
  • Q2 2026 revenue NT$1,270.38 billion up 36% YoY with full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance slightly above 40% YoY in USD
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.