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SMCI

Super Micro Computer Inc

BUY 2026-08-11 Data 12 days old USD 31.51 AWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
68

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 31.51
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 26.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 36.00
Thesis breakA named loss of a major hyperscale or neo-cloud design win, a return to revenue ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case36%100 / 10036.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case14%10 / 1001.4
Weighted conviction68 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • StorMagic partnership delivering virtualized edge computing infrastructure solutions
  • Odine partnership expanding sovereign AI data center capabilities in T?rkiye
  • Q3 2026 EPS beat of 37.70% (actual $0.84 vs $0.61 estimate) with 123% YoY revenue growth
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.