SMS

Star Minerals Ltd

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-28 Market data as of 2026-11-11 Market data 4 days old AUD 0.04 Basic Materials - Other Industrial Metals & MiningIN BUY ZONE

ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed

Position levels

Currenttoday

AUD 0.04

Buy <=wait / entry

AUD 0.04

Trim >=take some off

AUD 0.06

Thesis breakTumblegum South misses the stated production range, the MEGA/Bain Right to Mine ...

Scenario-weighted conviction

	Probability	Score	Contribution
Bull case	26%	100 / 100	26.0
Base case	49%	62 / 100	30.4
Bear case	25%	10 / 100	2.5
Weighted conviction			59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

Right-to-mine agreement with MEGA Resources/Bain providing up to A$20m working capital and 50:50 profit share after cost recovery
Mining commenced at 100%-owned Tumblegum South with first mineralised material mined and ROM stockpiles established for toll treatment at Catalyst's Plutonic mill
Updated production target of 167-255kt at 2.16-2.43g/t for 11.8-15.9koz gold and scoping economics showing A$9.4-19.6m undiscounted cash surplus

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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.