Coverage / SBUX / Trade Card

SBUX

Starbucks Corp

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 105.25 Consumer Cyclical - RestaurantsAWAIT ENTRY
45

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 105.25
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 90.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 108.00
Thesis breakTwo consecutive quarters of negative US same-store sales comps combined with a g...
-

Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case9%100 / 1009.0
Base case51%62 / 10031.6
Bear case40%10 / 1004.0
Weighted conviction45 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Q3 2026 earnings beat with actual EPS $0.85 vs est $0.65 (30.77% surprise)
  • Raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.55-$2.65 from prior $2.25-$2.45
  • CEO statements on winning back customer loyalty and same-store sales recovery
Read full report →

Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.