SOFI
SoFi Technologies Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 18.38
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 15.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 20.00
Thesis breakA confirmed Q3 2026 revenue or origination miss combined with a cut to full-year...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 23% | 100 / 100 | 23.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 28% | 10 / 100 | 2.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 56 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Record Q2 2026 adjusted net revenue of $1.2 billion (up 40% YoY) with EPS beat of $0.12 vs $0.11 estimate
- Raised 2026 adjusted net revenue guidance to $4.75-4.85 billion alongside record loan originations of $14.8 billion
- Member growth to 15.8 million (up 35%) and product growth to 24.4 million (up 42%) with 51% cross-buy rate