Smurfit WestRock PLC

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 42.73 Consumer Cyclical - Packaging & ContainersAWAIT ENTRY

ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed

Position levels

Currenttoday

USD 42.73

Buy <=wait / entry

USD 36.00

Trim >=take some off

USD 48.00

Thesis breakA material breakdown in the announced CMPC Chile acquisition, the loss of the na...

Scenario-weighted conviction

	Probability	Score	Contribution
Bull case	26%	100 / 100	26.0
Base case	49%	62 / 100	30.4
Bear case	25%	10 / 100	2.5
Weighted conviction			59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

Acquisition of CMPC's Chilean Containerboard and Corrugated Business
Coca-Cola China supply agreement win
Q2 2026 earnings with raised Q2 EBITDA guidance to $1.1B-$1.2B and reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance

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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.