SIVE
Sivers Semiconductors AB
Position levels
Currenttoday
SEK 30.74
Buy <=wait / entry
SEK 20.67
Trim >=take some off
SEK 38.00
Thesis breakThe thesis breaks if the named LIDAR customer publicly slips its Q4 2026 product...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- LIDAR customer to ramp production with Sivers lasers and amplifiers in Q4 2026, with potential cumulative revenues of $28M to $53M over 2026-2030
- Opportunity pipeline expanded 77% YTD to $799M driven by wireless beamformers and InP lasers
- Multiple product ramps and strategic partnerships in automotive LiDAR, AI data center lasers, SATCOM and fixed wireless access expected into 2027