SLP
Simulations Plus Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 18.32
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 14.17
Trim >=take some off
USD 18.50
Thesis breakTermination, material renegotiation below USD18.50, or expiry of the Altaris tra...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: Simulations Plus agreed to be acquired by Altaris affiliate SP Evolution HoldCo II in a cash merger at $18.50 per share
- Earnings or guidance changes: Q3 FY2026 EPS beat of 29.03% ($0.300 actual vs $0.233 estimate) with 4.74% revenue beat; Q2 FY2026 EPS beat of 29.63%
- Earnings or guidance changes: Q1 FY2026 EPS miss of -27.78% and FY2025 Q4 revenue decline of 6% YoY with guidance for 3-5% revenue decline in F1Q:26