SLP
Simulations Plus Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 18.50
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 14.83
Trim >=take some off
USD 18.50
Thesis breakA buyer walk-away, a material adverse change invocation citing the disclosed cyb...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: Altaris acquisition agreement at $18.50 per share all-cash buyout, unanimously approved by board, expected close Q4 2026
- Earnings or guidance changes: Q3 FY26 EPS beat to $0.300 vs estimate $0.233 (29.03% surprise) and revenue beat to $21.886M vs $20.896M
- Earnings or guidance changes: Q3 2026 revenue of $21.9M (up 7%) with 69% gross margin and preliminary FY2026 revenue guidance $79-82M