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SPG

Simon Property Group Inc

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 233.61 Real Estate - REIT - RetailREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
65

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 233.61
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 178.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 205.00
Thesis breakA confirmed cut to full-year FFO guidance alongside a step-up in tenant bankrupt...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction65 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 2026 earnings beat with domestic property NOI up 8.5% YoY and raised full-year real estate FFO guidance
  • Record leasing activity with over 1,200 leases signed and initial base rents on new deals up 17% YoY
  • Malls and Premium Outlet occupancy at 96% with retailer sales per square foot up 13.9% YoY
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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