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SHOP

Shopify Inc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 151.57 Technology - Software - ApplicationAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
42

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 151.57
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 116.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 160.00
Thesis breakQ2 2026 revenue growth prints materially below the high-twenties percent guidanc...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case7%100 / 1007.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case43%10 / 1004.3
Weighted conviction42 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Multiple Form 144 filings by insiders prior to intended sale of restricted stock
  • Q2 2026 earnings release including 10-Q and financial supplemental
  • Consensus Moderate Buy rating from 45 analysts with average price target of $170.72
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.