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SHOP

Shopify Inc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 117.15 Technology - Software - ApplicationAWAIT ENTRY
38

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 117.15
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 98.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 125.00
Thesis breakA confirmed deceleration in GMV growth below mid-teens year-on-year for two cons...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case2%100 / 1002.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case48%10 / 1004.8
Weighted conviction38 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • $2 billion share repurchase program announced
  • Q4 revenue beat but EPS miss and lower Q1 free-cash-flow margin guidance
  • GMV of $378.4 billion and 30% revenue growth reported for 2025 in SEC filing
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.