STX
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 856.13
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 540.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 780.00
Thesis breakA named hyperscaler publicly announcing a multi-year shift away from nearline HD...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 11% | 100 / 100 | 11.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 39% | 10 / 100 | 3.9 |
| Weighted conviction | 46 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY | ||
Top risks
- Consecutive quarterly earnings beats including Q4 2026 EPS of $5.71 vs estimate $5.04 (13.29% surprise) and Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS of $3.11
- Record GAAP gross margin of 41.6% and non-GAAP gross margin of 42.2% in fiscal Q2 2026 with free cash flow of $607 million
- Revenue growth across recent quarters with Q2 2026 revenue of $2.83 billion and Q4 2026 revenue of $3.629 billion