STX
Seagate Technology Holdings PLC
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 545.14
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 600.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 760.00
Thesis breakA material cybersecurity incident materialising from the risks already disclosed...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 11% | 100 / 100 | 11.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 39% | 10 / 100 | 3.9 |
| Weighted conviction | 46 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY | ||
Top risks
- Q4 FY26 revenue of $3.6B and non-GAAP EPS of $5.71 exceeding expectations with 52.7% non-GAAP gross margin
- Argus Research maintains Buy rating and raises price target from 750 to 900
- Demand for high-capacity storage outpacing supply driven by AI, video and robotics applications with robust customer agreements