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RKLB

Rocket Lab Corp

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 64.07 Industrials - Aerospace & DefenseAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
66

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 64.07
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 61.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 95.00
Thesis breakThe thesis would be invalidated by (i) a Q2 2026 revenue print materially below ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case32%100 / 10032.0
Base case52%62 / 10032.2
Bear case16%10 / 1001.6
Weighted conviction66 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Record multi-year Synspective deal for 20 Electron launches, lifting contracted missions to 47 and total backlog above 100 with $2.36B value (+137% YoY)
  • $266M U.S. Space Force multi-launch contract and $190M contract for 20x HASTE launches
  • Planned acquisition of Iridium (shareholder-approved, mid-2027 close target) plus regulatory clearance for Mynaric acquisition and Motiv Space Systems purchase
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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