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RNO

Renault SA

BUY 2026-08-29 Data 14 days old EUR 29.43 Consumer Cyclical - Auto - ManufacturersAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
65

Position levels

Currenttoday
EUR 29.43
Buy <=wait / entry
EUR 27.00
Trim >=take some off
EUR 33.00
Thesis breakA downward revision to reaffirmed 2026 guidance, a sustained drop in European ne...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction65 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Confirmation of FY2026 operating margin guidance around 5.5% and automotive FCF near EUR 1B
  • H1 2026 group revenue growth of 9.5% to EUR 30.3B with net income turnaround to EUR 721M
  • Electrified vehicles at 52% of European sales and EV sales up 47.6% YoY
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.