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RDW

Redwire Corp

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 8.62 Industrials - Aerospace & DefenseAWAIT ENTRY
53

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 8.62
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 6.17
Trim >=take some off
USD 9.50
Thesis breakA material Andromeda task-order cancellation or non-award, withdrawal of FY2026 ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case19%100 / 10019.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case32%10 / 1003.2
Weighted conviction53 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • $1.8 billion Andromeda IDIQ contract and record $498.1 million backlog with 1.92 book-to-bill ratio
  • ELSA wings $12.8 million contract win plus ESA quantum-secure satellite award
  • Follow-on Marine Corps Stalker orders and other defence contract momentum
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.