QCOM
Qualcomm Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 167.86
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 139.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 175.00
Thesis breakLoss of a major Android OEM design slot, a material adverse outcome in QTL licen...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 27% | 100 / 100 | 27.0 |
| Base case | 48% | 62 / 100 | 29.8 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Price increases across chips starting September 1 to offset rising costs
- Q3 2026 EPS of $2.21 missed consensus by $0.02 with light forward guidance of $2.05-$2.25
- Revenue of $9.95B beat estimates but declined 4% YoY amid memory supply crunch