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PGR

Progressive Corp

BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 211.42 Financial Services - Insurance - Property & CasualtyAWAIT ENTRY
68

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 211.42
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 196.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 240.00
Thesis breakTwo consecutive quarters of combined ratio above 97% with reinsurance counterpar...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case37%100 / 10037.0
Base case47%62 / 10029.1
Bear case16%10 / 1001.6
Weighted conviction68 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 2026 EPS beat of $4.86 vs $4.59 estimate (5.88% surprise)
  • Analyst consensus 12-month price target of $234.71-$237.15
  • Consistent quarterly EPS outperformance in recent periods including Q1 2026
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.