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PGR

Progressive Corp

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 235.49 Financial Services - Insurance - Property & CasualtyREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
68

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 235.49
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 191.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 215.00
Thesis breakTwo consecutive quarters with a reported combined ratio above 95% combined with ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case37%100 / 10037.0
Base case47%62 / 10029.1
Bear case16%10 / 1001.6
Weighted conviction68 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 FY26 EPS beat of $4.85 vs $4.70 estimate
  • Keefe Bruyette & Woods Outperform rating with $250 price target maintained
  • Reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $21.08B and earnings of $3.31B
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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