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PGR

Progressive Corp

BUY 2026-08-29 Data 14 days old USD 218.64 Financial Services - Insurance - Property & CasualtyAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
67

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 218.64
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 198.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 235.00
Thesis breakA combined ratio above 100% reported in two consecutive quarters, accompanied by...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case36%100 / 10036.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case16%10 / 1001.6
Weighted conviction67 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 2026 EPS beat of $4.86 vs $4.59 estimate (5.88% surprise)
  • Analyst consensus Hold rating with $235.26 average price target (9.26% upside)
  • Personal vehicle net premiums written 43% through agency channel in 2025
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.