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PSX

Phillips 66

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 203.91 Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 203.91
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 159.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 198.00
Thesis breakA material escalation of the Clean Water Act enforcement action beyond the discl...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case26%100 / 10026.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Formally increased Sweeny NGL fractionation capacity by 23% and Freeport LPG export dock capacity by 15% via 2025 debottlenecking
  • Reported first-quarter earnings of $207 million or $0.51 per share with adjusted earnings of $200 million or $0.49 per share
  • Refining operated at 95% capacity utilization with 87% clean product yield
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.