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PSX

Phillips 66

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 262.91 Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 262.91
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 225.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 285.00
Thesis breakA material escalation of the Propel Fuels litigation accrual beyond current prov...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case25%100 / 10025.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • M&A activity: Acquisition of remaining 50% ownership interest in WRB Refining for $1.3 billion cash consideration
  • Earnings beat: Q2 FY26 actual EPS +9.41 versus estimate +7.5 with revenue 52.04B and earnings 3.85B
  • 2026 capital budget of $2.4 billion including $1.3 billion growth capital for NGL value chain and refining projects
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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