PSX
Phillips 66
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 211.68
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 171.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 215.00
Thesis breakA material adverse resolution of the Clean Water Act or related SEC-disclosed en...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 33% | 100 / 100 | 33.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 16% | 10 / 100 | 1.6 |
| Weighted conviction | 66 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- Strong Q4 2025 earnings with reported EPS $7.17 and adjusted EPS $2.47 plus record NGL volumes, 88% clean product yield and 99% refining utilization
- $3.5 billion in asset acquisitions and $3.5 billion in dispositions enhancing the portfolio
- $10 billion increase to share repurchase program