PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 190.82
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 173.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 210.00
Thesis breakA formal adverse regulatory action against smoke-free categories in a major mark...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 30% | 100 / 100 | 30.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 21% | 10 / 100 | 2.1 |
| Weighted conviction | 62 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Strong Q2 2026 earnings with GAAP net revenues of $11,192 million (up 10.4% YoY) and EPS of $2.20 beating consensus $2.04
- Organic top-line growth near 8% reaching over $11 billion quarterly net revenues, with smoke-free business at 42% of total net revenues
- IQOS strong underlying momentum, VEEV rapid growth, and ZYN shipments up 2%