PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 189.57
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 171.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 205.00
Thesis breakMaterial regulatory action in a major market that destroys combustible demand wi...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 30% | 100 / 100 | 30.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 21% | 10 / 100 | 2.1 |
| Weighted conviction | 62 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Strong Q2 earnings with close to 8% organic top-line growth, over $11B quarterly net revenues, and 14% currency-neutral adjusted diluted EPS growth
- Smoke-free business at 42% of total net revenues, powered by IQOS momentum, rapid VEEV growth, and 2% ZYN shipment increase
- Combustible business exceeded expectations with growing volumes, stable category share, and strong US sequential improvement