Philip Morris International Inc.

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 196.66 Consumer Defensive - TobaccoAWAIT ENTRY

ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed

Position levels

Currenttoday

USD 196.66

Buy <=wait / entry

USD 166.67

Trim >=take some off

USD 200.00

Thesis breakA downgrade to FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance below $8.36, a regulatory action clo...

Scenario-weighted conviction

	Probability	Score	Contribution
Bull case	30%	100 / 100	30.0
Base case	49%	62 / 100	30.4
Bear case	21%	10 / 100	2.1
Weighted conviction			62 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

Contract manufacturing arrangement with Altria (Philip Morris USA) for combustible cigarettes, first shipments expected early 2027
Q2 FY26 EPS beat with actual +2.2 versus estimate +2.05 and revenue of 11.19B
8.8% dividend increase to $1.60 per quarter

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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.