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PTSB

Permanent tsb Group Holdings PLC

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today EUR 2.94 Financial Services - Banks - RegionalREDUCE ZONE
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
EUR 2.94
Buy <=wait / entry
EUR 2.33
Trim >=take some off
EUR 2.90
Thesis breakPublic veto, withdrawal, or material price-reducing remedy of the BAWAG offer by...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case25%100 / 10025.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • IRB mortgage models approval as strategic milestone enabling sustainable growth
  • Proposed final dividend, first since 2008
  • Customer deposits +6%, mortgage book +3%, business banking portfolio +9%, new mortgage lending market share c.20%
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.