PH
Parker-Hannifin Corp
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 957.98
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 883.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 1050.00
Thesis breakThe thesis would break if the CIRCOR acquisition fails to close on its disclosed...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 33% | 100 / 100 | 33.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 16% | 10 / 100 | 1.6 |
| Weighted conviction | 66 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: definitive agreement to acquire CIRCOR's Commercial and Defense Aerospace Business
- Earnings and guidance changes: record FY2026 sales of $21.5B with organic growth of 6.6%, adjusted EPS $32.31 up 18%, segment margin 27.3% up 120 bps, raised FY31 adjusted segment operating margin target to 30%
- Government or defence contract momentum: CIRCOR acquisition adds commercial and defense aerospace exposure