LON:PAF
Pan African Resources plc
Position levels
Currenttoday
92.15p
Buy <=wait / entry
75.00p
Trim >=take some off
115.00p
Thesis breakA material adverse regulatory or power-supply event at the Barberton operations,...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 32% | 100 / 100 | 32.0 |
| Base case | 49% | 62 / 100 | 30.4 |
| Bear case | 19% | 10 / 100 | 1.9 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: binding Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire Emmerson Resources
- Earnings or guidance changes: record annual gold production of ~275,000oz in line with FY26 guidance and ~40% YoY increase
- Earnings or guidance changes: missed Q2 2026 EPS estimates by 5.9% ($0.05 vs $0.06)