PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 172.01
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 126.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 190.00
Thesis breakA confirmed multi-quarter commercial growth deceleration below 30% year-on-year,...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 30% | 100 / 100 | 30.0 |
| Base case | 52% | 62 / 100 | 32.2 |
| Bear case | 18% | 10 / 100 | 1.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- U.S. government revenue grew 90% YoY to $809 million with 84% YoY growth in Q1 2026 to $687 million
- Closed 206 deals of at least $1 million, 72 of at least $5 million, and 47 of at least $10 million with TCV of $2.41 billion
- Q2 earnings beat with revenue $1.94B vs $1.80B expected and raised full-year revenue guidance to 71% growth plus U.S. commercial guidance to in excess of $3.42B for 2026