ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 291.35
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 195.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 305.00
Thesis breakA blocked or materially delayed Rigaku closing combined with a downward guidance...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 23% | 100 / 100 | 23.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 26% | 10 / 100 | 2.6 |
| Weighted conviction | 57 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Strategic collaboration and definitive share purchase agreement to acquire 27% stake in Rigaku Holdings for approximately $710 million, expected to close H2 2026
- Record Q2 2026 revenue of $343 million (up 18% sequentially) with all metrics exceeding high end of guidance and adjusted EPS of $1.93 beating estimates
- Advanced Nodes revenue up 50% sequentially to new quarterly record, plus all-time highs in Specialty Devices and Advanced Packaging