ONDS
Ondas Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 7.90
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 6.53
Trim >=take some off
USD 9.20
Thesis breaka disclosed 10-K contract termination for convenience or a material loss on comp...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 24% | 10 / 100 | 2.4 |
| Weighted conviction | 59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- Q2 2026 revenue of $83.8M beat consensus with 13x YoY growth and raised FY2026 guidance to $525-550M
- $757M backlog plus $175M Q2 and $105M early Q3 new orders with defense program visibility
- Planned $33M Aran Defense acquisition expected to add $26M 2026 revenue