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OKTA

Okta Inc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-10-04 Data 8 days old USD 211.49 Technology - Software - InfrastructureAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
43

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 211.49
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 151.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 215.00
Thesis breakThe thesis is invalidated if Okta reports a sub-10% revenue growth quarter, disc...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case7%100 / 1007.0
Base case52%62 / 10032.2
Bear case41%10 / 1004.1
Weighted conviction43 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Q4 FY2026 revenue and subscription revenue grew 11% year-over-year
  • Remaining performance obligations (RPO) grew 15% year-over-year in Q4 FY2026
  • Operating cash flow of $258 million and free cash flow of $252 million in Q4 FY2026
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.