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OKTA

Okta Inc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-11 Data 12 days old USD 150.77 AWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
38

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 150.77
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 115.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 155.00
Thesis breakA second consecutive earnings print (including the Q2 FY2027 release scheduled f...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case2%100 / 1002.0
Base case51%62 / 10031.6
Bear case47%10 / 1004.7
Weighted conviction38 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Q3 FY2026 earnings beat: 82 cents adjusted EPS vs 76 cents expected and $742M revenue vs $730M expected
  • No preliminary guidance provided for fiscal 2027 citing Q4 seasonality and need for conservatism
  • Q1 FY2027 revenue and subscription revenue grew 11% YoY with RPO +16% and cRPO +12%
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.