NVDA
NVIDIA Corp
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 200.75
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 173.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 220.00
Thesis breakA confirmed loss of share with a named hyperscaler to custom silicon equivalent ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 36% | 100 / 100 | 36.0 |
| Base case | 52% | 62 / 100 | 32.2 |
| Bear case | 12% | 10 / 100 | 1.2 |
| Weighted conviction | 69 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- Record Q1 2027 revenue of $81.6 billion (up 85% YoY) and Data Center revenue of $75.2 billion (up 92% YoY)
- EPS beat of 6.25% ($1.87 actual vs $1.76 estimate) for Q1 2027
- $80.0 billion additional share repurchase authorization and quarterly dividend increase from $0.01 to $0.25 per share