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NIO

Nio Inc - ADR

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 4.88 Consumer Cyclical - Auto - ManufacturersAWAIT ENTRY
49

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 4.88
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 4.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 5.20
Thesis breakThe thesis would be invalidated by a confirmed loss of a major OEM integration o...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case16%100 / 10016.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case36%10 / 1003.6
Weighted conviction49 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Q4 2025 EPS beat of $0.04 vs est -$0.05 (180% surprise)
  • Projected EPS of -$0.24 for Q1 2026 and -$0.07 for Q2 2026
  • Intense competition in China EV market from Tesla, BYD, Li Auto and XPeng
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.