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NKE

Nike Inc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-28 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 37.76 Consumer Cyclical - Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
55

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 37.76
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 33.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 43.00
Thesis breakThe thesis would be invalidated by fiscal 2027 currency-neutral revenue continui...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case23%100 / 10023.0
Base case47%62 / 10029.1
Bear case30%10 / 1003.0
Weighted conviction55 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Q4 EPS beat of 20 cents vs 13 cents expected and revenue of $10.97B vs $10.86B expected
  • Tariff refund of $986 million boosting gross margin by 890 bps and contributing 52 cents to EPS
  • China sales decline of 12% and overall NIKE brand revenue down 1-2% currency-neutral
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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