NBIS
Nebius Group NV
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 184.11
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 133.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 210.00
Thesis breakThe thesis would be invalidated by a material renegotiation or cancellation of t...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 30% | 100 / 100 | 30.0 |
| Base case | 52% | 62 / 100 | 32.2 |
| Bear case | 18% | 10 / 100 | 1.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY | ||
Top risks
- $27 billion five-year AI infrastructure supply agreement with Meta including NVIDIA Vera Rubin deployments
- Multi-billion dollar multi-year AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft for Vineland data center capacity
- Strategic alliance with NVIDIA including NVIDIA CORP acquisition of 21,065,936 NBIS shares on July 13, 2026