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NBIS

Nebius Group NV

BUY 2026-10-04 Data 8 days old USD 242.81 Technology - Software - InfrastructureAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
64

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 242.81
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 190.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 270.00
Thesis breakLoss of the Meta or Microsoft contract commitment, a dilutive equity raise excee...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case40%100 / 10040.0
Base case52%62 / 10032.2
Bear case8%10 / 1000.8
Weighted conviction64 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • $12 billion five-year AI infrastructure supply agreement with Meta
  • Multi-billion dollar AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft
  • Acquisition of Inferize to strengthen Nebius Token Factory inference stack
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.