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MP

Mp Materials Corp

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 51.11 Basic Materials - Industrial MaterialsAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
55

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 51.11
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 37.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 55.00
Thesis breakMaterial adverse Chinese export controls on rare earth oxides or magnets, or a c...
-

Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case21%100 / 10021.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case29%10 / 1002.9
Weighted conviction55 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Record NdPr production of 917 metric tons and sales of 1,006 metric tons in Q1 2026
  • Q2 2026 revenue of 108.49M exceeding estimates by 11.98%
  • Broke ground on 10X magnetics facility
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.