MRNA
Moderna Inc
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 62.96
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 50.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 70.00
Thesis breakA second late-stage Phase 3 failure in a non-COVID programme, a downward revisio...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 25% | 100 / 100 | 25.0 |
| Base case | 50% | 62 / 100 | 31.0 |
| Bear case | 25% | 10 / 100 | 2.5 |
| Weighted conviction | 49 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY | ||
Top risks
- FDA approval of mFLUSIVA seasonal influenza vaccine (fifth product, fourth U.S. approval) with 2026-27 launch targeted
- Reiterated up to 10% 2026 revenue growth target with improved operating expense outlook ($0.2B reduction) and year-end cash guidance of $4.7-5.2B
- Q2 2026 revenue of $0.1B and EPS of $(1.97) beat expectations with narrowed net loss