Coverage / MRNA / Trade Card

MRNA

Moderna Inc

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-10-04 Data 8 days old USD 190.01 Healthcare - BiotechnologyREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
43

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 190.01
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 103.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 170.00
Thesis breakA material adverse change to the Spikevax revenue trajectory, a regulatory setba...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case8%100 / 1008.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case43%10 / 1004.3
Weighted conviction43 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Potential approval of mFLUSIVA seasonal influenza vaccine with August 5 PDUFA date
  • Nasdaq-100 index inclusion announced October 2 2026
  • Improved 2026 GAAP operating expense outlook by $0.2B and year-end cash balance guidance of $4.7-5.2B
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.