MSFT
Microsoft Corp
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 464.72
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 431.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 505.00
Thesis breakA regulator mandating structural unbundling of Copilot from Microsoft 365, or Az...
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Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 33% | 100 / 100 | 33.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 16% | 10 / 100 | 1.6 |
| Weighted conviction | 66 / 100 - BUY | ||
Top risks
- Strong FY26 Q3 earnings with revenue $82.9B (+18%) and AI annual run rate $37B (+123% YoY)
- FY26 Q1 earnings showing 18% revenue growth and 24% operating income growth
- Consensus analyst Buy ratings with average price targets $545-560 implying 17-20% upside from $464.72