MEOH
Methanex Corp
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
Position levels
Currenttoday
USD 62.90
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 47.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 65.00
Thesis breakThe investment thesis is invalidated by a confirmed multi-quarter inability to s...
-
Scenario-weighted conviction
| Probability | Score | Contribution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case | 21% | 100 / 100 | 21.0 |
| Base case | 51% | 62 / 100 | 31.6 |
| Bear case | 28% | 10 / 100 | 2.8 |
| Weighted conviction | 49 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY | ||
Top risks
- M&A activity: definitive agreement to acquire OCI Global's international methanol business for $2.05 billion, including Texas assets and low-carbon methanol operations, expected immediately accretive to free cash flow per share
- Earnings and guidance changes: Q2 2026 EPS of $3.87 missed estimates by 2.03%; 2026 production guidance maintained at 9.0 million tonnes
- Major supply agreement: entered agreement to sell substantially all New Zealand natural gas contractual entitlements from Q1 2027 through end of decade