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MRL

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI SA

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-13 Market data 2 days old EUR 11.71 Real Estate - REIT - DiversifiedAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
65

Position levels

Currenttoday
EUR 11.71
Buy <=wait / entry
EUR 11.23
Trim >=take some off
EUR 13.30
Thesis breakThe thesis would be invalidated by a sustained failure to lease stated data cent...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case19%10 / 1001.9
Weighted conviction65 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Data center leasing guidance exceedance with confidence in surpassing 200 MW IT leasing for 2026 and potential to reach 340 MW
  • Strong H1 2026 results including double-digit revenue growth, high occupancy, and robust FFO driven by data centers and major pre-letting
  • Revenue grew 11.2% year-over-year with record results from data centers and AI-driven demand supporting Phase III expansion of 412 MW
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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