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MRCY

Mercury Systems Inc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 108.64 Industrials - Aerospace & DefenseAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 108.64
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 82.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 112.00
Thesis breakA confirmed loss of a named major defence-platform programme, bookings book-to-b...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case25%100 / 10025.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • 31% YoY growth in Modules and Sub-assembly product sales to $246 million in FY2025
  • Bookings decline at 9.6% CAGR with projected Q3/25 bookings of ~$200 million
  • SOSA-aligned edge processing suites launched for electronic warfare applications in 2025
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.