Coverage / MRCY / Trade Card

MRCY

Mercury Systems Inc

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 97.10 Industrials - Aerospace & DefenseAWAIT ENTRY
59

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 97.10
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 77.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 108.00
Thesis breakA material tariff-driven gross margin step-down that prevents adjusted EBITDA ma...
-

Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case26%100 / 10026.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case25%10 / 1002.5
Weighted conviction59 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Record Q3 FY26 bookings of $348 million (73.7% YoY growth) with 1.48 book-to-bill ratio
  • Record backlog of approximately $1.6 billion (up 17.9% YoY) reflecting defense contract momentum
  • Q3 FY26 organic revenue of $236 million (up 11.5% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $36 million (up 46.2% YoY)
Read full report →

Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.