MDA

MDA Space Ltd

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 29.16 Technology - Hardware, Equipment & PartsAWAIT ENTRY

BLOCKED - NOT ACTIONABLEMethodology gate: buy_preconditions_failed

Position levels

Currenttoday

USD 29.16

Buy <=wait / entry

USD 26.33

Trim >=take some off

USD 33.00

Thesis breakA material sovereign or defence contract loss or delay, a cut to 2026 revenue gu...

Scenario-weighted conviction

	Probability	Score	Contribution
Bull case	33%	100 / 100	33.0
Base case	51%	62 / 100	31.6
Bear case	16%	10 / 100	1.6
Weighted conviction			64 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

Government/defence contract momentum with wins supporting Canadian Space Agency, Japan Ministry of Defense, Canadian Armed Forces and European Space Agency programs
Backlog increased to $4.0 billion at Q2 2026 quarter-end, up $310 million QoQ, providing revenue visibility into 2026 and beyond
Q2 2026 revenues of $499 million (up 34% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $96 million (up 26% YoY) with raised 2026 guidance midpoint

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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.