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MDA

MDA Space Ltd

BUY 2026-08-11 Data 32 days old USD 34.23 Technology - Hardware, Equipment & PartsAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
66

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 34.23
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 28.50
Trim >=take some off
USD 37.50
Thesis breakA material loss or repricing of a named sovereign or commercial satellite contra...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case51%62 / 10031.6
Bear case16%10 / 1001.6
Weighted conviction66 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Contract wins supporting programs with Canadian Space Agency, Japan Ministry of Defense, Canadian Armed Forces and European Space Agency
  • Backlog of $4.0 billion at quarter-end increased $310 million QoQ
  • Q2 2026 revenues of $499 million up 34% YoY with Adjusted EBITDA of $96 million up 26% YoY and raised 2026 guidance midpoint
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.