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MCD

McDonald's Corp

BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 270.64 Consumer Cyclical - RestaurantsAWAIT ENTRY
67

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 270.64
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 255.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 295.00
Thesis breakGlobal comparable sales growth turning negative for two consecutive quarters, a ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case36%100 / 10036.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case16%10 / 1001.6
Weighted conviction67 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Lifted 2026 capital expenditure guidance to US$3.7 - 3.9 billion to fund 2,600 new global openings
  • Net income to free cash flow conversion of 84% in 2025 with low- to mid-80% guidance for 2026
  • Analyst average price target of $329.55 versus current price near $270
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.