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MCD

McDonald's Corp

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-08 Data 35 days old USD 274.48 Consumer Cyclical - RestaurantsAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
62

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 274.48
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 251.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 285.00
Thesis breakTwo consecutive quarters of US comparable sales below 0%, or an explicit cut to ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case30%100 / 10030.0
Base case48%62 / 10029.8
Bear case22%10 / 1002.2
Weighted conviction62 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Q2 2026 earnings with US comparable sales shortfall and net income of $2.36 billion
  • Appointment of Skye Anderson as president of US business effective immediately
  • Raised 2026 capex guidance to $3.7 - 3.9 billion for 2,600 new global openings
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.