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MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corp

OPPORTUNISTIC BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 316.47 Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingAWAIT ENTRY
62

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 316.47
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 268.33
Trim >=take some off
USD 325.00
Thesis breakA sustained compression of US refining crack spreads below the levels that suppo...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case30%100 / 10030.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case21%10 / 1002.1
Weighted conviction62 / 100 - OPPORTUNISTIC BUY

Top risks

  • Garyville jet project online in 1Q26 with El Paso FCC upgrade and Robinson jet project progressing
  • Incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization announced alongside $1.0 billion capital returned
  • Q1 2026 net income attributable to MPC of $511 million ($1.73 per diluted share) versus prior year loss
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.