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MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corp

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 412.85 Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingREDUCE ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
69

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 412.85
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 350.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 410.00
Thesis breakA sustained compression of US refining crack spreads below the level implied by ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case37%100 / 10037.0
Base case50%62 / 10031.0
Bear case13%10 / 1001.3
Weighted conviction69 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • $38M DoD contract payment and $650M total government awards over last year
  • Q2 2026 earnings beat with $5.14B net income, $8.5B adjusted EBITDA and $2.8B returned to shareholders
  • TD Cowen price target raised to $450 from $375 with Buy rating
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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