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MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corp

BUY 2026-08-29 Data 14 days old USD 368.83 Energy - Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingAWAIT ENTRY
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
76

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 368.83
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 301.67
Trim >=take some off
USD 385.00
Thesis breakThe thesis would break if Marathon Petroleum prints two consecutive quarters of ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case44%100 / 10044.0
Base case51%62 / 10031.6
Bear case5%10 / 1000.5
Weighted conviction76 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • Strong Q2 2026 earnings with net income $5.1B and adjusted EBITDA $8.5B
  • El Paso and Robinson yield-enhancing investments online in 2Q26
  • MPLX strategy supporting 12.5% annual distribution growth in 2026-2027
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.