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MANU

Manchester United PLC

SPECULATIVE BUY 2026-08-01 Updated today USD 23.01 Communication Services - EntertainmentAWAIT ENTRY
43

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 23.01
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 18.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 24.00
Thesis breakManchester United fails to qualify for the UEFA Champions League in the 2026-27 ...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case8%100 / 1008.0
Base case49%62 / 10030.4
Bear case43%10 / 1004.3
Weighted conviction43 / 100 - SPECULATIVE BUY

Top risks

  • Q3 2026 earnings miss with actual EPS $0.04 versus $0.07 estimate
  • Maintained FY2026 revenue guidance of GBP 640-660 million and adjusted EBITDA GBP 180-200 million
  • Binary on-pitch performance risk as primary driver of broadcasting revenue
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.