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Lumentum Holdings Inc

BUY Analysis generated 2026-10-04 Market data as of 2026-11-12 Market data 3 days old USD 624.65 Technology - Communication EquipmentIN BUY ZONE
ACTIONABLEMethodology gates passed
68

Position levels

Currenttoday
USD 624.65
Buy <=wait / entry
USD 880.00
Trim >=take some off
USD 1200.00
Thesis breakA public loss of the NVIDIA design-win partnership, fiscal Q4 2026 revenue print...
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Scenario-weighted conviction

ProbabilityScoreContribution
Bull case33%100 / 10033.0
Base case54%62 / 10033.5
Bear case13%10 / 1001.3
Weighted conviction68 / 100 - BUY

Top risks

  • NVIDIA strategic partnership and $2B AI optics investment deal
  • Q4 2026 earnings beat (EPS $3.23 vs $2.90 est) with 109% YoY revenue growth to $1.01B
  • Raised FY28 earnings forecast to $40 and ~$2B quarterly revenue target by 4Q27
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Research is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. All analysis reflects the date of publication.

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